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Mav’s Big Fucking Oscar Predictions List – 2018 (Why can’t my favorite movie win?)

Who wants to do an Oscar pool? I love the Oscars. Everyone knows that. Oh, you didn’t know that? Well, then you haven’t been paying attention… how the hell are you even reading this? To me the Oscars are almost as exciting as the Super Bowl (come on, last year’s last minute buzzer beater by Moonlight was amazing).. I watch them every year and I make Stephanie watch with me so we can fill out ballots and baton the winners. In 2015 and 2016, I posted my “Big Fucking Oscars Prediciton List” for the awards so that people could try to beat me. For some reason I seem to have forgotten to have done a predictions list online last year; I was probably too busy working on a conference paper or something. I’m busy working on papers right now, but you know what… fuck it.

I love the Oscars!

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So I’ve written at various points about what it means to be an Oscar movie and why something like Wonder Woman, as much as I loved it, doesn’t deserve to be there. It just isn’t “good” enough in an objective sense… at least not in the any of the ways that the Oscars are meant to measure. The Oscars often take criticism for being “out of touch with the fans”and just being “the Hollywood industry just taking a chance to blow itself.” And well, YES! It is! It is totally Hollywood taking the chance to blow itself. That’s why I use the silly sex metaphor in my predictions. It is what it is, and that’s ok. The Oscars are the movie industry looking at the their peers and celebrating their technical and artistic merit. They’re about the artistic statement that the Academy wants to present. The Oscars aren’t about what people like. They’re not about connecting with the fans. That’s the People’s Choice awards and the Billboards. Wonder Woman was hugely inspiring to a great many people who needed that inspiration and will carry it with them for the rest of their lives. Black Panther is doing much the same this year. But you don’t get an Oscar for that. You get a different award. It’s called a billion dollars. And when you compare that billion dollars to a little golden statue that something like Moonlight takes home, well… it’s not that bad a trade.

Movies are a funny art form. Pop culture entertainment is in general, but especially movies. Pop culture fandom often develops such a sense of ownership over the media that it consumes that it feels entitled to demand that others see it the same way as they do. No one ever writes think pieces complaining that Pulitzer Prize should have considered Twilight or The Hunger Games or even Harry Potter series. And when’s the last time you read a hot take on someone being snubbed by the Dentistry Awards?  To argue that the popular choice film should get the award because the Academy is out of touch for wanting to celebrate their values rather than the public’s is much the same thing.

That said, I don’t always think the Academy gets it right. Sometimes I disagree with their choices, even within their own metric. Lots of critics do. Famously Shakespeare in Love beating out Saving Private Ryan back in 1999 and the Artist arguably should have lost to literally ANY of the other nominees back in 2012. So this year I figured maybe I’d offer two sets of picks when applicable: The pick I think will win and the pick I want to win when I disagree. It will be interesting to see if any of my wishes for will actually pull an upset.

Steph and I will be watching the show Sunday night and probably drinking a bunch (yay, I don’t have to work on Monday!!!!) so if anyone is up for Oscarsing and Chilling as the kids say (well, the cool kids say… ok… well they should say… whatever… fuck you!) let me know. And one way or the other, I’d love to see your Oscar Picks as well. Post them here, it’ll be fun to see if anyone can beat me. You can get a ballot here: https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2018/02/printable-2018-oscar-ballot. For extra super awesome points, feel free to comment with your guesses before you read mine. That makes it more fun to compare.

And now my picks… Mav’s Big Fucking Oscar Predictions 2018:


      1. Best Picture:
        • The biggest award of the night is probably the most obvious place where I’ll disagree, and it’s the place where the common viewer probably has the most problem with the Oscars. It’s where people think Wonder Woman got snubbed. But when you look at the other films there… films, which granted only 5-10% of the Wonder Woman audience saw, and you objectively judge them it doesn’t fit. If anything, the snub here for me was The Big Sick, which really probably should have snuck in here. It is worth noting that the Oscars allow up to ten nominations for Best Picture (instead of the five for most categories). This year they only chose nine, and so there was an open spot which has actually been pretty debated. In some respect, I guess everyone can just assume their favorite film should have been inserted there and was snubbed for political reasons. Or maybe it’s like saving a seat for Elijah? I dunno. Anyway Conventional wisdom is that this is a two dog race between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. I personally actually liked the latter film more, but for Best Picture, I think the visual artistry of former film is going outweigh the storytelling mastery of the latter. Especially since Three Billboards isn’t really “enjoyable” so much as it is “good.” The social issues being so unresolved and so present in Three Billboards is going to leave some voters uncomfortable for this category. Of course, if it were up to me, I’d go with Lady Bird. I do think it was the best film of the year in terms of storytelling and theatrical craft, plus it fit the social message of the time period and it was hella enjoyable. Lady Bird was like the first time you have sex. It was true love or what felt like it. Maybe you don’t totally know what you’re doing yet, but it was sweet innocent and beautiful. You’ll never forget it. But that just won’t compare to the mastery of what is Shape of Water, this year. After all, who doesn’t love the beautiful touching story of a woman fucking a fish. Everyone wants to see that, right? You know you do!
        • Mav’s wishful thinking: Lady Bird
        • Mav’s prediction: The Shape of Water
      2. Best Directing:
        • Much of what I said under Best Picture applies here as well. This is the place where a lot of people thought Patty Jenkins should have been nominated for directing Wonder Woman (she shouldn’t have been). And it’s a place where I personally would love to see Greta Gerwig win for Lady Bird. She won’t. A lot of people are probably also probably pulling for Jordan Peele to get the Oscar for Get Out. He won’t. Hopefully Gerwig and Peele will have future opportunities. But as far as how this year is going to shake down, this is all about Guillermo del Toro. And this is for the same reasons that I think his film is going to take Best Picture. This is a movie that honestly isn’t all that innovative from a storytelling point of view. It was a cute little fairytale, that I’ve seen before (specifically it’s Splash… but if you want to take out specific plot details, it’s just a lot of star-crossed lovers romances), but what made it special was the exceptional craft of presentation and that was all del Toro. Who else could make such a beautiful visual statement out of woman fucking a fish? Exactly!
        • Mav’s wishful thinking: Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird
        • Mav’s prediction: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
      3. Best Actor in a Leading Role:
        • I try to see most of the movies that I think have Oscar potential. Partly because I want to make informed guesses here. Partly because I’m like the pop culture weenie guy so understanding the current zeitgeist is sort of my job. And partly because I just really like movies. I’m going to admit that I never got around to seeing Darkest Hour. I wanted to, it was just never the right time. So I’m kind of judging it based on trailers and clips. But I think I have the basic plot down. The story goes like this: Let’s dress up Gary Oldman in a fat suit and win him an Oscar. And something about Churchill too, maybe, but really what can we do to get Oldman and Oscar? That’s the story, and I think it’s going to work. The only thing could possibly fuck it up is that we know Daniel Day-Lewis is giving up acting after his latest movie (Phantom Thread), presumedly to continue to pursue his lifelong dream of being a cobbler (no, really!). And it’s possible that the Academy just wants a chance to blow Day-Lewis last time… you know how it is… sometimes the love of your life is leaving you… you know there’s nothing you can do to make them stay, but if this is going to the last night together, then you’re going to make it memorable and you’re going to fuck the shit out of them! Really work it this time. Suck harder than ever. No orifice is off limts. Maybe call in a friend as well. The Academy wants Daniel to know what he’s giving up. They want him to remember their name. But let it go, Academy. He’s already moved on. I mean, it’s not that he doesn’t care about you. He does. And if you beg hard enough… then sure… he’ll finish on your face one last time. But honestly, he’s doing that for you, not for himself. The magic is gone for Daniel. It’s over. If you love him let him go. But Gary… look at Gary over there in his fat suit. He’s doing that for YOU! Gary loves you. He just wants a little recognition. He just wants to know you love him. You don’t need to do too much. Maybe just a little hand stuff. He deserves it. Don’t make him beg. He will. And you know what that’s like. Besides, Oldman is totally ok with you having a side piece.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking and prediction: Gary Oldman for The Darkest Hour
      4. Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
        • And speaking of being a side piece. Sam Rockwell wants this bad and will do ANYTHING for you and I mean ANYTHING. All the stuff you’re willing to do for DDL plus stuff you’ve never even heard of and wouldn’t know to google. Filthy stuff. Sam’s going reach down your — Ok, I just want to break away from the sexual metaphor gimmick for a second. Same Rockwell, fucking owned his role in Three Billboards. No one else matters here. Not even a little bit. And yeah, there’s a little bit of controversy about “should we be celebrating someone in this day cultural moment for playing such a racist?” And the answer is yes. Rockwell embodied that character perfectly. That was the definition of acting and he did it in a way that made a character that was completely over the top seem very real and tangible. So much so that he caused the controversy. That’s craft and there’s just no question that he deserves this. Ok back to the sexual metaphor gimmick already in progress. — and you’ll both be walking funny for weeks afterwards.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking and prediction: Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
      5. Best Actress in a Leading Role:
        • So there’s this problem in Hollywood. They favor the young, particularly among women. And really… I get it. Because given the chance I totally would totally fuck both Margot Robbie and Saoirse Ronan. And if you don’t want to… well, something is wrong with you. But they’re both in their 20s. They’re skinny, white, blonde and pretty. Frankly, even if they weren’t talented (and they both are) Hollywood find something for them to do. Sally Hawkins is 41 and brunette, so she had to do a little something extra and fuck a fish on camera to get noticed (and again, I don’t want downplay the cinematic achievement there… it was beautiful… like, I mean, I’m questioning stuff about myself). But you know who’s willing to really work for it? A sixty year old France McDormand, who like her co-star Sam Rockwell (see above) was good enough that my whole stupid Hollywood orgy metaphor just kind of falls apart. She was just that good. It doesn’t matter who else was nominated. What? There are five spots and we only nominate four women? I don’t know, someone throw Meryl Streep in there for whatever she’s done most recently… because it doesn’t fucking matter. This is McDormund’s year.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking and prediction: Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
      6. Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
        • So this is a weird one. Here’s the one place that I feel like there was a serious snub this year. Holly Hunter really deserved a nomination here for The Big Sick. It didn’t happen. Probably just because the movie came out too long ago and no one really expected much to come of it. I’d argue it’s probably the biggest omission in this year’s nominations. She was amazing in it. The only things that come close are Allison Williams not getting nominated for lead actress in her role in Get Out (and she’s young, white and pretty… even without being blonde she’ll get another shot… especially given how talented she is) and Patrick Stewart not getting a nomination for supporting actor in Logan (but that’s a comic book movie… so probably a lot of Academy voters didn’t take it seriously even though he was very good). However, in each of these cases, including Hunter, it wouldn’t have mattered. Rockwell is taking the category that Stewart would have been nominated for. McDrormund is taking the category that Williams would been in. And supporting actress is coming down to one of two people. Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird and Allison Janney for I, Tonya. This one is kind of a steal. Janney is going to take it. And Janney totally deserves an Oscar. But even at 58, she’s going to get another shot. This is a body of work award. She’s paid her dues and she was good in this and she’s going to take it. I personally think Metcalf was better. And she’s 62 and doesn’t do as many movies (she’s a TV actress) so this is probably her last shot. But it’s not going to happen. This is Janney’s year. Everyone else should just be happy to be there. But this is the one place where I would have replaced a nominee. I like Octavia Spencer a lot and she has an Oscar win and another nomination for a reason. Shape of Water was not her best work. Hunter was better. So since they’re all going to lose to Janney anyway, I would have liked to have seen Hunter get a nod here.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking: Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird 
        • Mav’s prediction: Allison Janney for I, Tonya
      7. Best Animated Feature:
        • Animated Feature is probably the one category in all the Oscars where being the super popular movie is actually the best way to guarantee a win. Sometimes this is deserved. Sometimes it’s not. This time it is. The answer here is Coco. Arguably, Coco deserves that 10th spot in the Best Picture race. There shouldn’t even be a contest here really. To continue the Hollywood orgy metaphor that I’ve been doing one last time (it doesn’t really matter for the awards after this) and be quite inappropriate for a film that is aimed very much at children, Coco is like deep sensual lovemaking while everyone else is still waiting for their first kiss. I mean, really… we’re comparing this to fucking Boss Baby. Are you fucking kidding me?
        • Mav’s wishful thinking and prediction: Coco
      8. Best Animated Short Film:
        • And now we’re getting down to the films and awards that most people don’t understand even a little bit. That’s why the orgy metaphor is hard to continue If you’ve got an Oscar pool going, this is where you win it. Animated short films are actually really hard to judge. Partly because it’s sort of like Best Picture in that there are a lot of different ways to win it. Sometimes it’s technical achievement. But it’s just as often to be awarded on grounds of making a really touching story or a beautiful piece of artwork. And sometimes you just give it to whatever random thing Disney or Pixar tossed out there just to win the award (this year, that thing is Lou). This was tricky this year, because I actually would kind of like to see Revolting Rhymes win in any given year. But not this one. Usually, this isn’t the kind of award that anyone that you’ve ever heard of matters at all. Best Animated Short Film is not about star fucking. But not this year. This year, I think it goes to Kobe Bryant’s Dear Basketball. Oh yeah, did you know Kobe Bryant was a film maker now? Well he is. And his short is a gorgeous and touching love letter to… well, himself… but it’s really good.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking and prediction: Dear Basketball
      9. Best Cinematography:
        • If there is a fucking god, then this belongs to Blade Runner 2049. I loved that movie, and while I acknowledge it isn’t for everyone (and predicted that no one would see it when I reviewed it), if Blade Runner is about nothing else, it is about the beauty of the film medium. This category basically exists for Blade Runner 2049. I would argue that ninety years of fucking Oscars were all leading up to this moment when Blade Runner 2049 wins an Oscar for cinematography. But there is no god… so there’s a good chance that Dunkirk takes this instead. But I’m going against my gut… this is the one place where I’m going to put my wishes in instead and make my official prediction what I want it to be instead of what I expect the Academy to do. It’s the one award I’ll be least surprised to lose.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking and prediction: Blade Runner 2049
      10. Best Costume Design:
        • Remember how I said that The Darkest Hour only exists to give Gary Oldman an award for best actor? Well, Phantom Thread only exists in order to win the award for Costume Design. No joking… it’s literally a movie about designing costumes. That’s it. I actually haven’t watched it yet (I should) but I mean, this is the most Oscar pandering concept ever. And by all accounts, they did a great job.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking and prediction: Phantom Thread
      11. Best Documentary Feature:
        • This one is always hard. Generally I never get to see any of these until after the Oscars (if ever) and that’s true this year. A lot of the industry buzz is that this is going to go to either Icarus or Faces Places. But, I’m going with Last Men in Aleppo. The Documentary category is one where traditionally the Academy likes to show just how socially conscious they are. This is not not just culturally and socially relevant in this exact historic moment as a film, but it is notable because it is not only the first film ever nominated out of Syria, and the subject matter of the film itself, but because if it were to win, no one will be there to accept the award because Trump’s travel ban is keeping the filmmakers out of our country. And yeah, maybe you didn’t know that… but the people who vote for documentaries probably do.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking and prediction: Last Men in Aleppo
      12. Best Documentary Short Subject:
        • Same issue with Documentary Short Subject. Here socially conscious and relevant matters. The two short subject categories (this and animated) are the only ones where all of the voters are required to see all of the films (since it doesn’t take long) and with documentary, this is a place where making a statement matters. I’m going with Heroin(e) purely because people are going to want to address opioid crisis.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking and prediction: Heroin(e)
      13. Best Film Editing:
        • Remember what I said about there not being a god? If there were a god, then Baby Driver might have a shot here. Baby Driver is a movie that is all about craft. The magic of that movie is the way in which sound and visuals are expertly crafted together. The challenge was not only editing it together in a brilliant way that made for an engaging visual experience, but the technical expertise to make it work with the music and sound mixing. The film is a master class in craft. It is a singular achievement in film editing that absolutely deserves this almost as much as Blade Runner 2049 deserves the cinematography award. But I said I was only going to play that card and go against my gut once and I am sticking to it. So I think Baby Driver gets beat here just because it’s too genre and high concept and voters might never have given it a chance. So this award is going to go to the second best edited film this year, Dunkirk.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking: Baby Driver
        • Mav’s prediction: Dunkirk
      14. Best Foreign Language Film:
        • Like I said, these categories are really hard. I’m going to go with A Fantastic Woman, because it’s the one I am most interested in seeing (I haven’t seen any of the nominees this year). There are a couple others that sound interesting (The Insult is getting some good buzz) but I feel like this one. And much like the documentary categories being a socially relevant can really help in this category. Not as much, but some. And this is a story focusing very heavily on transgender rights. This is something that can also tank it because… well, the Academy is a lot of very very old white men. So it might just be “icky.” But, I expect Foreign Language Film is one of the categories where a lot of the people who would be squicked out by it just don’t bother to vote, so I’m going with it.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking and prediction: A Fantastic Woman
      15. Best Live Action Short Film:
        • This is another one of my hard sections because I haven’t seen them. So on this one I’m judging purely on industry buzz and social relevance. I’m going with Dekalb Elementary. Honestly, a big part of this is because it will create a moment for the filmmaker to stand up and give an inspiring speech about gun control and how we have to do something to end the crisis of school shootings. And everyone will applaud and feel great… well, until he gets played off for giving a speech longer than ten seconds, because we have to make sure we have enough time left for the big names to give speeches at the end of the show. We care about school shootings… but only so much.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking and prediction: DeKalb Elementary
      16. Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
        • This is usually a hard one. It’s not this time. Remember how I said that Darkest Hour was a movie about getting Gary Oldman his Oscar? Well, in order to that they had to transform him. And that took a massive technical achievement in makeup and hairstyling.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking and prediction: Darkest Hour
      17. Best Original Score:
        • Original Score is a weird category this year. For obvious reasons, the industry sort of privileges the “Original” part of Original Score. And, so in a lot of ways it sort of makes sense to exclude Baby Driver from the category because the music is from preexisting sources. BUT, in the same way that Phantom Thread is a movie about costuming. Baby Driver is a movie about scoring a movie. That’s the whole gimmick of the film. And to exclude it is sort of the same thing as arguing a DJ isn’t a musician and well… that’s an argument. But in this specific case, I feel like Baby Driver at least needed to be on the conversation. Certainly more than Star Wars: The Last Jedi which I think is just sort of there because legally, Star Wars has to be nominated in this category. But Baby Driver is not there. And so I am forced to pick something else, and while I personally liked the Dunkirk score a lot, I think for what the Academy is going for, we go to Shape of Water again here. If nothing else, because it has momentum.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking: Dunkirk 
        • Mav’s prediction: Shape of Water
      18. Best Original Song:
        • The music categories are hard at the Oscars. You have to sort of forget that you’re at movie awards and then apply the logic that you would use for making a Grammy pick. But then you have to remember that you’re picking an award for a movie and you are at the Oscars and it’s just a whole big thing. And also, it’s music so it kinda needs to sound nice. Anyway, for some reason, 21st century Hollywood loves a musical and The Greatest Showman was one.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking and prediction: “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
      19. Best Production Design:
        • Like I said, there is no god, but there is momentum.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking: Blade Runner 2049 
        • Mav’s prediction: Shape of Water
      20. Best Sound Mixing:
        • As I say every year, no one in the world really understands the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. Not even the people who do it for a living. I think I understand… and if I do, then this is the one place where Baby Driver has a very real shot at winning an Oscar. And it deserves it. But again, remember, there is no god… and you’re not required to watch all of the movies to vote in this category. I can totally see old Oscar voters looking at the cover for their Baby Driver screener DVD and saying “oh fuck no” and moving on without knowing how much that movie needs this. It is a celebration of the art of film sound. But no… they’ll probably just pick Dunkirk.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking: Baby Driver 
        • Mav’s prediction: Dunkirk
      21. Best Sound Editing:
        • Baby Driver was more about the sound mixing than the sound editing… you know… unless I got those backwards… because again, no one really remembers which is which. If I’m right, then Blade Runner 2049 had better sound editing. But it doesn’t matter, because the same deal as with Sound Mixing and the Academy will just pick Dunkirk and move on with their lives.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking: Blade Runner 2049 
        • Mav’s prediction: Dunkirk
      22. Best Visual Effects:
        • Do you know why this category exists? This category exists to give trophies to Star Wars. Any year that there is no Star War is just a year that we’re standing around and waiting for a Star War to happen. And I am including the fifty years that the ward existed before the first Star War. And now that we have a Star War every year, you should be able to sort of pencil in the Star War to win this award. Only it hasn’t happened. See, the last time we brought back the Star Wars we were busy giving this award to Matrixes and Lords of Rings. And this time, now that we have a yearly Star War, we keep saying “oh, well, there will be another chance for the Star Wars, so let’s recognize an Ex Machina or a Jungle Book because we’ll totally get to the recognizing the Star War next year.” Well, this is not that year. Because this is the year of Blade Runner 2049. And frankly, there’s probably not going to be another one. In 1982, the original Blade Runner got bumped for this award by E.T. which for all intents and purposes (in this category at least) might as well have been a Star War. Well, this franchise didn’t wait thirty-five years for that to happen again. So you know… lets see how Solo: A Star Wars Story does next year (BWAHAHAHAHAH!!!!)
        • Mav’s wishful thinking and prediction: Blade Runner 2049
      23. Best Adapted Screenplay:
        • Sometimes it’s an honor to be nominated. Two of my own personal favorite films are in this category this year. Logan and The Disaster Artist. A movie about the X-man Wolverine and a movie about arguably one of the worst movies of all time. Neither of these things have any business being anywhere near the Academy Awards… and yet, in these two specific cases… they totally do belong. They’re just not going to win. In the past we’ve had a lot of Oscar controversy about things being too white. Too male. Too heteronormative. The Academy is trying to fix that… Moonlight last year was a big part of that. But they’re not going to burn the Best Picture spot on diversity every year. And a good place to do that is the screenwriting awards. So this is going to be the Academy saying “you want diversity? Fine, we’re so woke we’re going to give an award to a gay film that you’ve never even fucking heard of. That’s right, we’re going with Call Me By Your Name. You don’t know it! Not so woke after all, are you! Fuck you!”
        • Mav’s wishful thinking: Logan (though to be fair, this is partly me being a comic book weenie and I haven’t seen the film that is going to win yet either… though I want to) 
        • Mav’s prediction: Call Me By Your Name
      24. Best Original Screenplay:
        • And they can consider demonstrating their wokeness with the other screenwriting award. And this is kind of a problem. Because as I said on my very first pick, Lady Bird was probably the best pure film of the year. And it really deserves and Oscar. But it’s not going to get one. It’s going to get shut out, and that sucks. Because it wasn’t the best written film. The Big Sick was actually better, and this is the only places it’s even nominated. And I really would have liked to see that get more recognition. And really, again, if there was a god, it would probably be a shoe-in here. But there is no god… and in the mind of the Academy voter, diversifying means tossing a vote towards a woman, a gay, or a black. But then when the voter looks at Kumail Nanjiani they say “what the fuck is that dude?!?!?  Pakistani? Uhhh…. no…  no no no… that’s just not going to happen here.” Wokeness only goes so far. But on a good note, it goes far enough that I think you can pencil in Jordan Peele to get recognized for Get Out. Oddly enough, of the three things I’ve mentioned here, Get Out is probably the LEAST well written. But it’s the one that I feel like can really get traction and win here. Of course, this is a tough category… and I wouldn’t be shocked if Three Billboards gets another nod here (and that would be reasonable) or Shape of Water because of its momentum (and this would NOT be reasonable. It’s not as well WRITTEN as the others). But I think this is one where the more diverse pick really can pull it out. Not just because he’s black, but because it’s such a different film than anything else that Academy has ever seen. And yet they liked it enough to nominate it anyway.
        • Mav’s wishful thinking: The Big Sick 
        • Mav’s prediction: Get Out

So those are my picks… What are yours? And if you’re interested in watching with me an Steph, let me know (we may even say yes ?).

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15 comments for “Mav’s Big Fucking Oscar Predictions List – 2018 (Why can’t my favorite movie win?)

  1. March 3, 2018 at 1:16 pm

    I’m not doing this as I only saw three of the nominated films, but I hope THE SHAPE OF WATER wins. I’m a huge fan of Del Toro.

  2. March 4, 2018 at 7:36 am

    For me the Oscars have been ruined by the rise of earlier, minor awards, above all The Golden Globes (selected by ~ 90 foreign journalists), creating an “awards season” through which sentiment coalesces around early award winners by the bandwagon effect, removing almost all element of surprise. If there had been no earlier awards, you might be kind of surprised for Shape of Water to win Best Picture. Yet here we are and it is the favorite.

  3. March 4, 2018 at 7:45 am

    A smaller note: On Daniel Day-Lewis, I don’t believe Academy voters think like that at all. In plenty of cases they’ll think of a perfectly fine nominee, “well, they’ve already got an Oscar, let’s give it to someone else”. DDL has the record for a f*ing 3 Best Actors, I don’t see any chance they’d give him a fourth, especially since Phantom Thread is not a popular favorite.

  4. March 4, 2018 at 7:01 pm

    Final Tally… 20 for 24. Not bad at all! I beat Richard Roper.

    1. March 5, 2018 at 2:28 am

      Good job! I remember winning the pool at your Oscar party back in 2009 — though that might have been a tie with you. But you bested me this year.

      Still true that all the top awards went to the favorites with no surprises. Of course, Oscar pools are made or broken on the minor awards. Like you, I was tripped up on docs short and long plus live-action short, but a couple of other errors as well.

    2. March 6, 2018 at 11:15 am

      Kris Adams, my son is your kindred spirit! NOW I know why you’ve always seemed like family! ?

    3. March 6, 2018 at 11:47 am

      Indeed. I wish my prediction write-ups could be this powerful.

    4. March 6, 2018 at 12:33 pm

      thanks. I was pretty happy with how well I did, but I’m really hoping for the day that I get it perfect.

  5. March 5, 2018 at 2:27 pm

    I’m just stoked I don’t have to draw a comic this week.

    1. March 5, 2018 at 2:34 pm

      because you don’t have faith in me to color the one you did by Thursday (i’m not saying that this belief is unfounded… but still)

    2. March 5, 2018 at 2:42 pm

      since when do we run adventures on thursday? (I know…last week) it’s a confusing practice, we should stick to mondays. Also I’m really busy this week.

    3. March 5, 2018 at 3:32 pm

      yeah, oscars aside, i’ve actually been pretty busy too… which is why actually punted on it

  6. March 5, 2018 at 3:39 pm

    Just saw this. I’m putting my bet on “The Shape of Water” for Best Picture.

    1. March 5, 2018 at 3:39 pm

      uhh… wow… how prescient of you… 🙂

    2. March 5, 2018 at 3:40 pm

      It’s a gift

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