How many black people are killed by police vs how many black people are arrested by police?
I am not, nor have I ever been trying to disprove that statistically X is true in regards to black people.
If 1 out of every 100 black people gets punched in the face every time they walk past a random cop, it is entirely possible that you as one of the 100, might get punched in the face every time you walk by a cop. Giving you a 100% punched in the face chance, during the times that you walked past a cop previously. That is not to say that you will have a 100% chance in the future, it simply states that up until this point you have been punched in the face 100% of the time.
So while, up to this point, 1% of the black people who walked past random cops got punched, you happen to have had it happen 100% of the time. If you walked past a cop 50 times, and you got punched 25 of that 50, you would have been punched 50% of the time.
So to this point, on average, when 1000 people are killed by the cops, roughly 400 of them are black. So ~40% of the people who get killed by the cops are black on average.
That does not mean it will always be 40%, only that over the past X amount of years, that has been the average amount of black people shot by the cops.
That infers nothing about why, it is simply a statement of what happens year over year on average.
Same goes for the number of arrests/encounters. Roughly 3 million per year.
All I have said is that 400 is a very small percentage of 3 million. Which is true.
So making a claim, that the police are more likely to shoot black people than arrest them, makes no sense.
400 vs 3 million. No matter how you slice that, no matter how it relates to disparities based on whatever variable you choose.
The cops are less likely to shoot people, than to simply arrest them.