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Mav’s Big Fucking Oscar Predictions List (aka, the Great Hollywood Orgy – 2015)

download-680x400Not everything I say can be me ranting about ridiculous racist advertising or sexist prom dress rules. Sometimes I want to talk about something fun. And so… the Academy Awards.

I’m weird. I love the Oscars. I always have. People argue with me about how it’s a meaningless self-congratulatory Hollywood circle jerk. And they’re right. It is. That’s part of what makes it so great.

I always hear people say they’re meaningless or the right films never win. But I think a big part of that is defining what right films mean. The Oscars are like the single greats microcosm of the intersection of class, economics and culture that America produces on a regular basis. Like way better than any of the movies that get nominated. It is an orgy of awesomeness! They are Hollywood’s chance to say:

“We the ridiculously wealthy and elite — who like to consider ourselves a collective industry of serious artists — would like to celebrate the vision that we have been trying to present for the last 365 days by publicly blowing these six individuals on stage until they cum all over our faces, because they are artists, dammit! As a warm, up, we would also like to give some love to these other eleven people who are the ones who really make our films possible. We don’t congratulate them enough, and they work really hard, they deserve to cum once a year, you know, so long as they’re quick about it. And just for fun, in the middle of it, we’re going to take five token starving artists who actually ARE trying to make artistic statements because they foolishly think that it might make the rest of us care about them someday, and we’re going to pity fuck them on stage. It makes us feel good about ourselves, doesn’t take very long, and they let us do it in their butt (foreign films, documentaries and shorts, you know who you are). Oh, and then we’re going to give two awards to sound guys… we really don’t understand what either of them do, but it turns out that if we promise them that they’re totally going to get in on the orgy next year, they’ll keep showing up and bringing the booze. The little fuckers have been falling for it for decades. Also, there will be pretty dresses and Neil Patrick Harris will host.”

It rules!

So I actually care. I care so much that I’m like one of the 5 people on earth who can actually tell the difference between what the two sound guys do. A few times in the past I’ve had little Oscar parties where we dress up, drink champagne, eat fancy food, and bet on the awards and I gave prizes away to whoever could do the best and whoever could do the absolute worst (getting zero of them is actually a little harder than you think). Obviously, no one else really cared about it but me, so I tended to do pretty well, but people like drinking free alcohol. Steph and I thought about doing it this year, but we never got around to planning it. We’ll be watching of course, so if you want to come over and watch with us, you’re welcome. No fancy clothes or champagne we required. But I guess we can drink beer in our underwear or something. We can even have an orgy! Especially if you’re an artsy documentary short type!

So anyway, I figured I’d post my Oscar predictions here and see if anyone else wanted to post and see if you can beat me. I think it’s fun, so even if you don’t think you’ll do well, give it a shot. Turns out guessing randomly on the ones you don’t know is a better strategy than you think. Maybe I’ll even have a prize for the best if I can think of something.

So, the categories and my picks are:

The Technical 11 (aka, you pick: hand job or missionary style with the lights off)

So if the Oscars were about people enjoying films, these are the awards that people would pay attention to. They kind of make the movie. But they’re not as sexy.

grand_budapest_hotelBest Original Screenplay

  • Birdman  – Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. and Armando Bo
  • Boyhood – Richard Linklater
  • Foxcatcher – E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness – Mav’s Pick 
  • Nightcrawler – Dan Gilroy

I’m going with general industry buzz here because I haven’t gotten around to watching it yet (I literally have the DVD sitting right next to me), but I feel like it’s gotta be Grand Budapest Hotel. I have seen enough trailers and such to get a general feel for the writing and knowing what goes into a screenplay, I feel like it’s going to go a lot better than the other big contenders here.

Imitation-Game-fmBest Adapted Screenplay

  • American Sniper – Jason Hall from American Sniper by Chris Kyle, Scott McEwen and Jim DeFelice
  • The Imitation Game – Graham Moore from Alan Turing: The Enigma by Andrew Hodges – Mav’s Pick
  • Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson from Inherent Vice by Thomas Pynchon
  • The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten from Travelling to Infinity: My Life with Stephen by Jane Wilde Hawking
  • Whiplash – Damien Chazelle from his short film of the same name

From looking at other people’s predictions, both movie critics and regular people (cuz I’m weird and lame and I actually do that sort of thing), people are all over the place with this one. I’ve heard buzz for literally all five films. I’m picking based on the book of the five that I happen to be most interested in reading right now. So I’m gonna go with Imitation Game.

theory_of_everythingBest Original Score

  • The Grand Budapest Hotel – Alexandre Desplat
  • The Imitation Game – Alexandre Desplat
  • Interstellar – Hans Zimmer
  • Mr. Turner – Gary Yershon
  • The Theory of Everything – Jóhann Jóhannsson – Mav’s Pick

The nice thing about the original score category is that you don’t actually have to watch all of the films to get a good idea of what to pick. You can just watch all of the trailers or pull up samples on iTunes and you can hear it for yourself. So I don’t have to depend on the buzz. In this case, the buzz has it right. Clearly Theory of Everything.

selmaBest Original Song

  • “Everything Is Awesome” from The Lego Movie – Music and Lyric by Shawn Patterson
  • “Glory” from Selma – Music and Lyric by John Legend and Common – Mav’s Pick
  • “Grateful” from Beyond the Lights – Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
  • “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me – Music and Lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond
  • “Lost Stars” from Begin Again – Music and Lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois

Ok, I’d like to be able to say Everything Is Awesome. I know that’s what a lot of people want. And you know what, everything is awesome… because John Legend and Common are about to win a fucking Oscar. This is the one where I expect people to tell me I’m wrong. Really, I get wanting to the fun silly song to win. I get being upset that the Lego Movie got snubbed from the one category where it really belongs. But, no… it’s not going to beat Glory.

Screen-Shot-2014-03-14-at-2.40.23-PMBest Production Design

  • The Grand Budapest Hotel – Adam Stockhausen (Production Design); Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration) – Mav’s Pick
  • The Imitation Game – Maria Djurkovic (Production Design); Tatiana Macdonald (Set Decoration)
  • Interstellar – Nathan Crowley (Production Design); Gary Fettis (Set Decoration)
  • Into the Woods – Dennis Gassner (Production Design); Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration)
  • Mr. Turner – Suzie Davies (Production Design); Charlotte Watts (Set Decoration)

This one is probably the easiest in the Oscars this year, Grand Budapest Hotel is pretty much exactly what “Production Design” means.  There’s really just no way for this to lose. Honestly, I’m not even sure why Into the Woods is on the list. It was an ok movie, it had fun production design, but it’s just not even on the same level. I’d like to hear from some of my set design friends here (Reuven, Mickey?). Do you see any way this doesn’t just completely slaughter everything else? Like why even bother showing up? (and especially Into the Woods…  like I’m not even convinced it’s the 5th best production design of the year)

BirdmanDI-1Best Cinematography

  • Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) – Emmanuel Lubezki – Mav’s Pick
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel – Robert Yeoman
  • Ida – Łukasz Żal and Ryszard Lenczewski
  • Mr. Turner – Dick Pope
  • Unbroken – Roger Deakins

This should be a slam dunk too. Clearly Birdman. Like 20 years from now, when you go to film school and they teach cinematography, they’re just going to show Birdman and say “it should work like this.” The only problem is, Cinematography is maybe the hardest category for Academy viewers to grasp (outside of the sound ones) and sometimes they just say “Uh, I dunno… that was pretty.” So I’m going to go with Birdman, but who knows.

Tilda-Swinton-Grand-Budapest-HotelBest Hair & Makeup

  • Foxcatcher – Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel – Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier – Mav’s Pick
  • Guardians of the Galaxy – Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White

This category is always hard for me. It should be easier because there are only 3 nominees instead of five, but they’re always very diverse, and really anything could happen. We’ve got Foxcatcher which went with the total transformation of Steve Carrell, which is pretty visually impressive and so kind of a technical achievement. You have Grand Budapest Hotel, which is going for ostentatious but realistic. It’s subtle but fantastic, rather than in your face. You have Guardians of the Galaxy, which is the token sci-fi nominee. Here you get the bizarre visuals that just don’t normally happen in real life, blue people, green people. Really, this category breaks down this way like every year. And it can go any direction. I’m going with Grand Budapest, because I feel like its a year for “subtle” in this category, and Grand Budapest is shaping up to be my big winner, so you know… inertia.

into-the-woods-see-all-the-characters-in-new-moving-postersBest Costume Design

  • The Grand Budapest Hotel – Milena Canonero
  • Inherent Vice – Mark Bridges
  • Into the Woods – Colleen Atwood – Mav’s Pick
  • Maleficent – Anna B. Sheppard
  • Mr. Turner – Jacqueline Durran

Oh Look, Maleficent got nominated for something. Who the fuck saw that coming? Hmmm… this one is hard for me. Costume can go just like Makeup and Hair. GBH could totally take this, but I don’t want to vote for them for EVERY category. Honestly, Maleficent totally has a shot here. The costumes in that were pretty, but I think I may actually go the other way and go with Into the Woods as kind of a make for me betting against them in production design. This is tricky though. I admit I’m really on the fence on this one.

boyhood_xlgBest Film Editing

  • American Sniper – Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach
  • Boyhood – Sandra Adair – Mav’s Pick
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel – Barney Pilling
  • The Imitation Game – William Goldenberg
  • Whiplash – Tom Cross

So it’s funny. Really, the magic of the cinematography in Birdman has a lot to do with the editing, but its invisible, so that guy got kinda snubbed. But I think on this one I have to go with Boyhood. I figure any woman who had wade her way through 13 years of film footage, and splice it together into a coherent (and really quite good) movie deserves an award. I mean what she did here was the equivalent of taking someone else’s crappy home movies of their kids growing up and making an Oscar worthy picture of them.

Quicksilver.pngBest Visual Effects

  • Captain America: The Winter Soldier – Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick
  • Dawn of the Planet of the Apes – Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist
  • Guardians of the Galaxy – Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould
  • Interstellar – Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher
  • X-Men: Days of Future Past – Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer – Mav’s Pick

This one sucks… It really does. Here’s why. The visual effects category basically exists so that you have a place to nominate all the science fiction, action and super hero movies that can’t possibly win any of the “real awards” just so they can put “the academy nominated” blurb on their DVD cover… And typically none of them can really win because they’re all basically the same as far as most people are concerned. Good special effects usually blend into the movie. They feel like they’re real. That’s what they’re looking for. So what you usually do is nominate a bunch of geek movies just to recognize them and then to toss in the one big Hollywood film that you want to win. This year is exactly that. Interstellar is going to win here. I want you to know that I know that. I understand that. I get that. But fuck you, I’m voting for X-Men. It wasn’t even my favorite superhero movie on the year. In fact, both of the other superhero movies ON THIS LIST are better. But X-men deserves to win on the strength of the Quicksilver scene alone. Every once in a while, in this age of übereffects something really can distinguish itself, and X-Men did this year. So it’s going to lose to Interstellar, but I’m voting for it anyway, so I’m just going to lose this point.

MV5BMzMwMTAwODczN15BMl5BanBnXkFtZTgwMDk2NDA4MTE@._V1_SX640_SY720_Best Animated Feature

  • Big Hero 6 – Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli
  • The Boxtrolls – Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight
  • How to Train Your Dragon 2 – Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold – Mav’s Pick
  • Song of the Sea – Tomm Moore and Paul Young
  • The Tale of the Princess Kaguya – Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura

Ok here’s where people get to be mad. The Lego Movie really did get snubbed here. The Oscars are hard. There are very few places for animation to shine. When it first came out, I remember people (Internet Pioneer Sam Kass, for instance) arguing that Lego Movie deserved a shot at Best Picture this year. I told those people they were fucking nuts, and I stand by that, but it really did deserve a shot at Animated Feature. But they like to have a variety of nominee types for Animated Feature. Really, maybe the category shouldn’t be limited to five anymore (like Best Picture) because animation is such a big part of the movie scene now, but it is, so there could only be five. They weren’t going to dump the Studio Ghibli film. They also needed a non-Japanese foreign film. So Song of the Sea and Kaguya were shoe-ins. Boxtrolls is good pick because you want something kinda artsy and yet still American so it feels like the category belongs at the Oscars. So that leaves exactly two spots for big Hollywood Productions. I’m pretty sure there’s a federal law against not nominating a Disney release for this category, so that leaves only one spot. Probably the Lego Movie should have gotten the nod instead of the sequel to How to Train Your Dragon… too bad, cuz that’s totally going to win.

The Artsy 5 (aka, ƒµ¢& you in your @$$, you little ∑#ø®Ə!)

Ida, Sundance Film Festival 2014Best Foreign Language Film

  • Ida (Poland) in Polish – Paweł Pawlikowski – Mav’s Pick
  • Leviathan (Russia) in Russian – Andrey Zvyagintsev
  • Tangerines (Estonia) in Estonian and Russian – Zaza Urushadze
  • Timbuktu (Mauritania) in French – Abderrahmane Sissako
  • Wild Tales (Argentina) in Spanish – Damián Szifrón

This is where most people start getting up to go to the bathroom, because they know they haven’t seen any of the films and we’re Americans and we don’t give a fuck about the rest of the world. We may pretend, but we don’t. Ida is going to win. I actually haven’t seen it yet, but it’s gotten enough buzz that I am aware of it and will probably watch it eventually.

citizenfour-posterBest Documentary Feature

  • Citizenfour – Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutsky – Mav’s Pick
  • Finding Vivian Maier – John Maloof and Charlie Siskel
  • Last Days in Vietnam – Rory Kennedy and Keven McAlester
  • The Salt of the Earth – Wim Wenders, Lélia Wanick Salgado and David Rosier
  • Virunga – Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara

Here’s where some people like to pretend that they’re deep and stuff, so they maybe don’t get in line for the bathroom. But really, they want to go too. They know they do. I mean, I’m that guy who actually likes the Oscars and even I don’t really care to watch the speech from the Best Documentary Feature most of the time. That said, Citizenfour is going to win this. It’s like topical and stuff. People like that.

LaParka5Best Documentary Short Subject

  • Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 – Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry
  • Joanna – Aneta Kopacz
  • Our Curse – Tomasz Śliwiński and Maciej Ślesicki
  • The Reaper (La Parka) – Gabriel Serra Arguello – Mav’s Pick
  • White Earth – J. Christian Jensen

To be honest, I don’t know any of these films this year. I’ve not heard any of the buzz that makes me go “oh, maybe I want to see that!” So I’m going with The Reaper/La Parka. And I’m going with it for one reason and one reason only. Because I want to be able to use a picture of the wrestler La Parka in this blog. That is not the poster for the film. The film is not about him, at least as far as I know. I don’t believe he has anything to do with it at all. But La Parka kicks ass, so I’m picking the film with his name. (It actually does have a pretty cool looking guy in a hoodie in it… but I think that’s a coincidence).

Parvaneh_S-414455321-largeBest Live Action Short Film

  • Aya – Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis
  • Boogaloo and Graham – Michael Lennox and Ronan Blaney
  • Butter Lamp (La Lampe au beurre de yak) – Hu Wei and Julien Féret
  • Parvaneh – Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan Eichenberger – Mav’s Pick
  • The Phone Call – Mat Kirkby and James Lucas

Short Film is actually one of my favorite categories. There’s a lot of really goof ones in the mix this year. I haven’t had a chance to see any of them, just the trailers (a lot of times all the short live actions are online by Oscar time, so I’ll watch them all), but I am pretty interested in Aya, Parvaneh, and the Phone Call. The others look like they have a great shot at it too, especially Boogaloo and Graham. I think I want to see Aya most on a personal level, but I’m going to go with

posterBest Animated Short Film

  • The Bigger Picture – Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees
  • The Dam Keeper – Robert Kondo and Daisuke Tsutsumi
  • Feast – Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed – Mav’s Pick
  • Me and My Moulton – Torill Kove
  • A Single Life – Joris Oprins

The animated shorts weren’t all online this year either. I did get to see some of them though, and unlike the short films, I think they’re easier to judge by trailers. I’m totally going with the Disney film on this one. Not just because it’s Disney, but it was also kind of cute. So definitely Feast.

The Big 6 (aka, ¢µπ on my face, you ƒµ¢&ing stallion!)

75Best Supporting Actress

  • Patricia Arquette – Boyhood as Olivia Evans – Mav’s Pick
  • Laura Dern – Wild as Barbara “Bobbi” Grey
  • Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game as Joan Clarke
  • Emma Stone – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) as Sam Thomson
  • Meryl Streep – Into the Woods as The Witch

I want to say Emma Stone here. I thought she was really good in Birdman. But she’s not going to get it. This is totally Patricia Arquette’s year. And she was definitely good in Boyhood. Meryl Streep is only on the list for the same reason Big Hero 6/Disney was on the list in Animated. She made a movie, the law says she has to be nominated.

simmonsBest Supporting Actor

  • Robert Duvall – The Judge as Judge Joseph Palmer
  • Ethan Hawke – Boyhood as Mason Evans, Sr.
  • Edward Norton – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) as Mike Shiner
  • Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher as Dave Schultz
  • J. K. Simmons – Whiplash as Terence Fletcher – Mav’s Pick

Both actor categories are really hard this year. This could be anyone. I’d love for Ruffalo to get an Oscar some day, and Norton was great in Birdman. But, much like Arquette, I think this is totally the year of J.K. Simmons. But this, I think is probably the most competitive category this year. Any of these guys could take it.

Julianne-Moore-in-Still-AliceBest Actress

  • Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night as Sandra Bya
  • Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything as Jane Wilde Hawking
  • Julianne Moore – Still Alice as Dr. Alice Howland – Mav’s Pick
  • Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl as Amy Elliott-Dunne
  • Reese Witherspoon – Wild as Cheryl Strayed

I want to go with Rosamund Pike. I think she was great in Gone Girl. I haven’t seen it, but I’m told Reese Witherspoon was great in Wild. But I think the thing with the actor awards is a lot of times it comes down to who I think people feel like “deserves” to get an Oscar. That’s part of why I picked Simmons and Arquette. And that’s why I’m picking Julianne Moore here. It’s just time for her to win.

birdman-movie-still-194Best Actor

  • Steve Carell – Foxcatcher as John Eleuthère du Pont
  • Bradley Cooper – American Sniper as Chris Kyle
  • Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game as Alan Turing
  • Michael Keaton – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) as Riggan Thomson / Birdman – Mav’s Pick
  • Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything as Stephen Hawking

And now we get to the big one that everyone is talking about. For some reason people raved about Bradley Cooper in American Sniper. I’m a big fan, but he really wasn’t THAT good. He was good, and in a less competitive year, he’d have a shot, but this was just an amazing year for lead actors. On the “it’s their time” track, I think Cumberbatch and Carell could have a shot in a normal year. Everyone is saying Eddie Redmayne in Theory of Everything, and I haven’t watched it yet. Steph and I are thinking of watching to today, so maybe I’ll change my mind, but I’m going to go with Michael Keaton in Birdman. He was amazing. That was the performance that this award was made for.

boyhood_xlgBest Director

  • Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
  • Richard Linklater – Boyhood – Mav’s Pick
  • Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher
  • Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game

This one is hard for me. Like with Best Supporting Actor, I think any of the five of them could win, but it really comes down to three of them for me: Linklater, Anderson and Iñárritu. I want Birdman to be my big winner, but I think the Academy will actually split the awards this year, so I’m splitting my vote and going with Linklater. I think the reason Boyhood was so good really came down to the direction (more than say Arquette’s performance) so I’m going with it.

Birdman_imagefullwideBest Picture

  • American Sniper – Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan
  • Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) – Alejandro González Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole – Mav’s Pick
  • Boyhood – Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson
  • The Imitation Game – Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman
  • Selma – Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner
  • The Theory of Everything – Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten
  • Whiplash – Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster

It was a really good year for movies. A few years back they changed the best picture nomination process from shutting off at 5 to 10 so that blockbusters could make the list, even if they couldn’t win. This year there are only 8, and I think they all could reasonably be picked in a normal year as a winner but up against each other, much harder. It’s weird that so many people wanted American Sniper to win. It was decent, but I think it has more to do with 21st century Patriotism™(also known as islamophobia). It just can’t hold up to the serious contenders. Selma is actually in the same boat. Making a civil rights statement is very topical, but I don’t think good enough to win this year. It’s totally going to be Birdman.

Sound Guys (aka, can you clean that up and make us a sandwich)

interstellar3Best Sound Editing

  • American Sniper – Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
  • Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) – Martin Hernández and Aaron Glascock
  • The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies – Brent Burge and Jason Canovas
  • Interstellar – Richard King – Mav’s Pick
  • Unbroken – Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro

I actually think the two sound awards are maybe the best in the Oscars. Mostly because no one understands them at all. I’m kinda amazed that they still show up on the main broadcast and haven’t been shunted off to the technical awards, because they do sort of fit in better there. But I do understand them, and so I know that Sound Editing is going to go to Interstellar this year. The only tragedy is that they won’t be able to have Matthew McConaughey accept. Really, if Richard King new what was good for him, he’d take McConaughey up with him just to give the crowd a little alright alright alright.

MV5BMTkxNzI3ODI4Nl5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTgwMjkwMjY4MjE@._V1_SX640_SY720_Best Sound Mixing

  • American Sniper – John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin – Mav’s Pick
  • Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) – Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga
  • Interstellar – Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten
  • Unbroken – Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee
  • Whiplash – Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley

Richard Roeper actually said on his video blog that even he doesn’t understand the difference between Editing and Mixing. He just knows that usually the same person wins both of them, so he was betting on Interstellar again. But like I said, I do understand, and so I know that’s not going to happen. Best Sound Mixing is totally going to go to American Sniper. It will be the only award it wins on the night, and it will be good enough that they’ll be able to promote the DVD release as “the Academy Award Winning American Sniper.” I know no one on earth cares about this but me and the people who were nominated there, but the sound mix was great in that film.

So those are my picks. I’m actually curious as to what other people are thinking will happen, so even if you didn’t bother to read all of my ranting, I’d love to know just so I can compare to how people do. So please take a minute to make some guesses. Even if some are random. (Random guesses are actually fun, because then you can make fun of me when you do better than me). I’ll even give you the list to make it easier for you to copy and paste:

  1. Best Picture:
  2. Best Directing:
  3. Best Actor in a Leading Role:
  4. Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
  5. Best Actress in a Leading Role:
  6. Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
  7. Best Animated Feature:
  8. Best Animated Short Film:
  9. Best Cinematography:
  10. Best Costume Design:
  11. Best Documentary Feature:
  12. Best Documentary Short Subject:
  13. Best Film Editing:
  14. Best Foreign Language Film:
  15. Best Live Action Short Film:
  16. Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
  17. Best Original Score:
  18. Best Original Song:
  19. Best Production Design:
  20. Best Sound Editing:
  21. Best Sound Mixing:
  22. Best Visual Effects:
  23. Best Adapted Screenplay:
  24. Best Original Screenplay:

And if anyone does want to come over and watch with us, that beer and orgy offer is open.

 

 

15 comments for “Mav’s Big Fucking Oscar Predictions List (aka, the Great Hollywood Orgy – 2015)

  1. avatar
    February 21, 2015 at 5:58 pm

    What I want to win/my prediction (if different)

    Best Picture: Imitation game/Birdman
    Best Directing: Miller/Inarirtu
    Best Actor in a Leading Role: Keaton
    Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Norton/Simmons
    Best Actress in a Leading Role: Moore/Jones
    Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Stone/Arquette
    Best Animated Feature: Boxtrolls (only one I’ve heard of)
    Best Animated Short Film: Moulton*
    Best Cinematography: Budapest Hotel
    Best Costume Design: Into the Woods
    Best Documentary Feature: Salt of the Earth*
    Best Documentary Short Subject: Crisis Hotline (for not giving BP to Sniper)
    Best Film Editing: Boyhood
    Best Foreign Language Film: Wild Tales*
    Best Live Action Short Film: Aya*
    Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Foxcatcher
    Best Original Score: Theory of Everything*
    Best Original Song: Glory
    Best Production Design: Into the Woods
    Best Sound Editing: Sniper
    Best Sound Mixing: Sniper
    Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Imitation Game
    Best Original Screenplay: Birdman

    *Total random guess.

  2. avatar
    February 21, 2015 at 6:13 pm

    Okay, I’ll play.

    Best Picture: Grand Budapest Hotel (this is kind of a random guess, because I haven’t seen it.)
    Best Directing: Linklater
    Best Actor in a Leading Role: Cooper (I haven’t seen it and don’t want him to win. I’m just being pessimistic.)
    Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Simmons
    Best Actress in a Leading Role: Moore
    Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Arquette (though I’d rather see it go to Laura Dern; but Arquette deserves it, too.)
    Best Animated Feature: How to do the dragon thing (just a random guess; I haven’t seen any of the nominees)
    Best Animated Short Film: Feast (totally random guess)
    Best Cinematography: Ida (though my personal choice would be Leviathan, if only it were nominated in this category)
    Best Costume Design: Into The Woods (random guess)
    Best Documentary Feature: Salt of the Earth (totally random guess)
    Best Documentary Short Subject: Joanna (random)
    Best Film Editing: Whiplash
    Best Foreign Language Film: Ida (though Leviathan is my hopeful)
    Best Live Action Short Film: Butter Lamp (totally random)
    Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Grand Budapest
    Best Original Score: The Imitation Game (random guess)
    Best Original Song: Glory (random guess; though I would’ve liked to see “I love you all” from Frank nominated here)
    Best Production Design: Into The Woods (random guess)
    Best Sound Editing: Unbroken
    Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
    Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
    Best Adapted Screenplay: American Sniper (though I hope I’m wrong.)
    Best Original Screenplay: Birdman

  3. avatar
    February 21, 2015 at 7:28 pm

    I appreciate the shout out… but I have literally zero opinion on any of the movies this year. I haven’t seen any of them. Not one. I honestly haven’t gone to see a movie since before my son was born, and I don’t have television (no cable and not even a converter box for network channels) so I’ve really never even heard of most of the stuff that’s nominated. If it isn’t streaming on Netflix I haven’t watched it, and even if it is I’d need to give up valuable sleep time to bother so it better be highly recommended by lots of my friends.

    The best way I can explain my current movie consumption: I checked out a DVD of Disney’s Frozen from the library yesterday so I could finally know what the hell the other moms at playgroup were talking about.

  4. avatar
    February 22, 2015 at 12:58 am

    Jason Streitfeld commented on ChrisMaverick dotcom:

    Okay, I’ll play.

    Best Picture: Grand Budapest Hotel (this is kind of a random guess, because I haven’t seen it.)
    Best Directing: Linklater
    Best Actor in a Leading Role: Cooper (I haven’t seen it and don’t want him to win. I’m just being pessimistic.)
    Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Simmons
    Best Actress in a Leading Role: Moore
    Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Arquette (though I’d rather see it go to Laura Dern; but Arquette deserves it, too.)
    Best Animated Feature: How to do the dragon thing (just a random guess; I haven’t seen any of the nominees)
    Best Animated Short Film: Feast (totally random guess)
    Best Cinematography: Ida (though my personal choice would be Leviathan, if only it were nominated in this category)
    Best Costume Design: Into The Woods (random guess)
    Best Documentary Feature: Salt of the Earth (totally random guess)
    Best Documentary Short Subject: Joanna (random)
    Best Film Editing: Whiplash
    Best Foreign Language Film: Ida (though Leviathan is my hopeful)
    Best Live Action Short Film: Butter Lamp (totally random)
    Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Grand Budapest
    Best Original Score: The Imitation Game (random guess)
    Best Original Song: Glory (random guess; though I would’ve liked to see “I love you all” from Frank nominated here)
    Best Production Design: Into The Woods (random guess)
    Best Sound Editing: Unbroken
    Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
    Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
    Best Adapted Screenplay: American Sniper (though I hope I’m wrong.)
    Best Original Screenplay: Birdman

  5. avatar
    February 21, 2015 at 8:06 pm

    Mickey: Oh, I was specifically tagging you (and Reuven) in response to my comments about “what do you look for in good production design”, which clearly either of you have expertise on that I don’t.

    It wasn’t so much about the actual films so much as what the sets looked like… Which is is a pretty simple google search (well, I mean, for first impressions, obviously to see the whole production you’d have to watch the movies, which goes back to the problem you mentioned)

  6. avatar
    February 21, 2015 at 8:07 pm

    Yeah… having opinions about any aspect of a film for me generally involves watching the film.

  7. avatar
    February 21, 2015 at 8:08 pm

    I wan song if the sea to win best animated. But I haven’t seen it yet. (Loved secret of kells, tho.)

  8. avatar
    February 22, 2015 at 12:09 am

    Bestpic: boyhood
    Director: linklater
    Actor: keaton
    Actor supporting: duvall
    Actress: felicity jones
    Actress supporting: patricia arquette
    Animated feature: big hero 6
    Animated short: the dam keeper
    Cinematography: birdman
    Costume: maleficent
    Doc feature: virunga
    Doc short: crisis hotline
    Film editing: boyhood
    Foreign: leviathan
    Live short: aya
    Makeup: guardians of the galaxy
    Score: theory of everything
    Song: glory
    Production design: grand budapest hotel
    Sound editing: the hobbit 5 armies
    Sound mixing: interstellar
    Visual: guardians of the galaxy
    Adapted screenplay: imitation game
    Original screenplay: grand budapest hotel

    And I’ve seen none of them. 🙂

  9. avatar
    February 22, 2015 at 4:15 am

    Changing my prediction: I think Imitation Game is gonna win for Best Picture. (I’d rather see Boyhood win.)

    • avatar
      mav
      February 22, 2015 at 11:29 am

      What made you change your mind, Jason?

      • avatar
        February 23, 2015 at 2:59 pm

        I didn’t think they’d go for a comedy. (Guess I was wrong!)

        But it looks like I got 11 predictions right. One less than you. I think we both did pretty good.

  10. avatar
    February 22, 2015 at 9:15 am

    Jason Streitfeld commented on ChrisMaverick dotcom:

    Changing my prediction: I think Imitation Game is gonna win for Best Picture. (I’d rather see Boyhood win.)

  11. avatar
    Sarah Walker
    February 22, 2015 at 4:57 pm

    Disclaimer Just want to point out that I’ve not seen many (if any) of the nominated films, except for Lego Movie…oh wait! So much for that one…We’ll see how it goes!
    Best Picture: Grand Budapest (However, I think Imitation Game has a solid shot. Budapest just SCREAMS “with love, The Academy”)
    Best Directing: Anderson (See above)
    Best Actor in a Leading Role: Cumberbatch (You’re British?!? We love you. Love, TA)
    Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Norton (just because)
    Best Actress in a Leading Role: Moore (saw the trailer…it was amazing!)
    Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Stone (caution to the wind)
    Best Animated Feature: Lego Movie…whoops. Big Hero 6 (which was good, too)
    Best Animated Short Film: Feast
    Best Cinematography: Birdman (again…thank you, IMDB trailers)
    Best Costume Design: Budapest
    Best Documentary Feature: Virunga (random guess)
    Best Documentary Short Subject: Our Curse (I’ve read up on that one…so I’m choosing it)
    Best Film Editing: Boyhood
    Best Foreign Language Film: Leviathan (random, again)
    Best Live Action Short Film: Boogaloo (fun to say)
    Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Guardians of the Galaxy (so I can vote for them somewhere)
    Best Original Score: Theory of Everything/Interstellar (which I did actually see, so it’s a cautious toss up)
    Best Original Song: “Everything is Awesome” (bc it is.)
    Best Production Design: Interstellar
    Best Sound Editing: Interstellar
    Best Sound Mixing: Birdman
    Best Visual Effects: Interstellar (although, I agree with your sci-fi views…the Quicksilver scene was amazing!)
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Theory of Everything
    Best Original Screenplay: Boyhood

    How’s that? -sw

  12. avatar
    February 22, 2015 at 10:00 pm

    Sarah Walker commented on ChrisMaverick dotcom:

    Disclaimer Just want to point out that I’ve not seen many (if any) of the nominated films, except for Lego Movie…oh wait! So much for that one…We’ll see how it goes!
    Best Picture: Grand Budapest (However, I think Imitation Game has a solid shot. Budapest just SCREAMS “with love, The Academy”)
    Best Directing: Anderson (See above)
    Best Actor in a Leading Role: Cumberbatch (You’re British?!? We love you. Love, TA)
    Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Norton (just because)
    Best Actress in a Leading Role: Moore (saw the trailer…it was amazing!)
    Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Stone (caution to the wind)
    Best Animated Feature: Lego Movie…whoops. Big Hero 6 (which was good, too)
    Best Animated Short Film: Feast
    Best Cinematography: Birdman (again…thank you, IMDB trailers)
    Best Costume Design: Budapest
    Best Documentary Feature: Virunga (random guess)
    Best Documentary Short Subject: Our Curse (I’ve read up on that one…so I’m choosing it)
    Best Film Editing: Boyhood
    Best Foreign Language Film: Leviathan (random, again)
    Best Live Action Short Film: Boogaloo (fun to say)
    Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Guardians of the Galaxy (so I can vote for them somewhere)
    Best Original Score: Theory of Everything/Interstellar (which I did actually see, so it’s a cautious toss up)
    Best Original Song: “Everything is Awesome” (bc it is.)
    Best Production Design: Interstellar
    Best Sound Editing: Interstellar
    Best Sound Mixing: Birdman
    Best Visual Effects: Interstellar (although, I agree with your sci-fi views…the Quicksilver scene was amazing!)
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Theory of Everything
    Best Original Screenplay: Boyhood

    How’s that? -sw

  13. avatar
    February 23, 2015 at 7:59 pm

    Jason Streitfeld commented on ChrisMaverick dotcom:

    I didn’t think they’d go for a comedy. (Guess I was wrong!)

    But it looks like I got 11 predictions right. One less than you. I think we both did pretty good.

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